I had planned to write this week about experience design to support my latest podcast episode, Creating Exceptional Employee Experiences in Independent Schools.

But when I read a post on LinkedIn from Dr. Brett Jacobsen, President of SAIS, I decided to shift gears. If you’re not already following him, I recommend it. His posts always spark good thinking.

His framing around “fewer students, more choices” prompted me to revisit a topic I often raise during business model retreats and presentations: declining birth rates.

Since 2007, U.S. births have declined by 17 percent, and the general fertility rate has dropped by 21 percent, largely tied to the Great Recession and shifting economic realities and priorities for families (NCHS Data Brief No. 507, 2024).

This has resulted in the majority of states experiencing a double-digit decline in birth rates (Pew).

At the same time, families have never had more educational options available to them.

Public schools, charter schools, parochial schools, microschools, online schools, and homeschooling are all becoming more prevalent with each passing year.

These weren’t forces most schools had to grapple with until recently. Add in declining birth rates, and you get a structural challenge that can’t be ignored. 

NAIS Jobs to Be Done research shows that families don’t just choose schools for academics or programs; they’re hiring schools to solve specific problems in their lives. When schools uncover those real jobs, they move past surface-level fixes and design programs that meet deeper needs. 

Done well, this creates differentiation that families notice, strengthening enrollment and clarifying your school’s value proposition.

But Jobs to Be Done isn’t the only lever. 

Pricing, demographics, and financial aid capacity all matter. But clarity on the jobs families hire your school to do is the foundation that makes every other decision more strategic.

Before diving into strategy, though, it’s critical to define the problem you’re trying to solve (more on that later in the newsletter).

So what does this birth rate decline mean for you, wherever your school is?

• If you are in fast-growing regions like parts of Florida, Texas, or the South, migration may be cushioning those demographic shifts, and enrollment pressures might feel less urgent.
  

• If you are based in the Northeast, Midwest, or many parts of the West Coast and Southwest, this is real and felt: fewer young families and fewer applicants. 

I hear it from school leaders all over. Even when they don’t name “birth rates” directly, they describe enrollment softness, fewer applications, and pressure behind the scenes.

Why this matters and how to act: Asking the right strategic questions

If you are not facing enrollment challenges right now, these trends are worth keeping an eye on..

If you are, slowing or declining applicant pools call for a thoughtful pause, not reactive action.

Think of the questions below as a simple framework to help you pull focus on the problem you are trying to solve.

It likely won’t give you an immediate answer, but it will point you in the right direction and help build momentum for where to put your time and energy:

1. Is the issue demographic (fewer kids in the pipeline) or something else? It matters whether you are competing for shrinking age cohorts or losing relative market share.
   

2. Is it a programming or value proposition issue? Using a jobs to be done lens, are your offerings meeting the real jobs families are hiring your school to do and aligned with your core mission?
   

3. Is price a barrier? Could adjusting tuition or creating flexible financial models expand your reachable market?
   

4. Are there regional differences to consider? Local context matters. Migration, cost of living, and competition can transform demographic challenges into opportunities or exacerbate them.
   

5. What lens are you using to define the problem? Diagnosing the wrong problem leads to wasted effort and internal energy spent solving something that will not move the needle.

Steps to Build Clarity and Act Strategically

• Determine whether you’re facing a market problem or a marketing problem. Is the issue that there aren’t enough families in your area, or that families aren’t choosing you? This episode of my podcast with Dana Nelson-Isaacs, Cracking the Code: Is Yours a Market or Marketing Challenge?, may help.
  

• Start with enrollment cohort trends and local birth rate trends, and how they translate into future enrollment cohorts. Look at public elementary enrollments or regional demographic reports to gauge what pipelines suggest three to five years out.
  

• Segment your applicant data by geography, program interest, and demographics. Are some feeder communities slipping faster than others? Which programs continue to attract strong interest?
  

• Conduct structured stakeholder conversations. Talk with current families, prospective families who didn’t enroll, and alumni families. What matters most to them: mission alignment, academic experience, value, or access?
  

• Use tools like NAIS Market View to analyze affordability. Understand how many families in your market can realistically afford your school at different price points. This data-driven approach gives you clarity on pricing dynamics.
  

• Align any strategy refresh with mission clarity. Ensure the problem you’re solving strengthens your school’s identity. Avoid chasing fuzzy fixes that dilute your brand.

In summary

Yes, there are challenges right now, and no school is immune to shifting demographics and market pressures. But challenge also means possibility.

This is a moment to pause, clarify, and test.

When you get clear on the real issue, whether it’s refining program design, examining tuition strategy, doubling down on what families hire you to do, or something entirely different, you put your school in a stronger position to move forward.